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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the series may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.