🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.